ITPM Risk-Adjusted Returns Explained: How Smart Traders Hedge for Uncertainty

Discover how ITPM traders use risk-adjusted returns to structure winning portfolios, hedge uncertainty, and maximize upside — just like Anton Kreil teaches.

🔍 What Are Risk-Adjusted Returns?

At its core, a risk-adjusted return measures how much return you're getting for every unit of risk you take. It’s not about chasing the biggest gains — it’s about smart, sustainable ones.

You could make 20% on a trade, but if you risked your entire account to get there, that’s a red flag, not a win.

Professional traders (like those trained at ITPM by Anton Kreil) ask:

“What happens if I’m wrong?”

They structure their portfolios so that no matter what happens — market up, down, or sideways — they have a plan and a pathway to profit.

🧠 Why All-In Bets Don’t Work Long-Term

A common rookie mistake? Going all-in on a single outcome or prediction.

But markets don’t reward emotion — they reward structure, discipline, and timing.

Enter the 50% position strategy.

Instead of betting the farm on one idea, ITPM students are taught to split their risk exposure:

• Half positioned for upside (e.g. positive tariff resolution)

• Half positioned for downside (e.g. escalation or market crash)

This way, whether the news hits hard or fizzles out, you’re not stuck — you’re structured and ready.

🎯 Real Example: Trading Around Tariffs

Let’s say tensions are high between the U.S. and China. Nobody truly knows if tariffs will be raised, dropped, or stay flat.

Rather than guess, ITPM-trained traders build risk-balanced portfolios with optionality in both directions — positioning themselves to win regardless of the outcome.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The following is a simplified educational example inspired by Anton Kreil’s trade structuring style taught at ITPM. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to take any specific positions.

Sample Setup (Inspired by ITPM Strategy):

• Long Dollar Tree – A defensive retailer showing resilience against 30% tariffs. If tariffs drop to 10%, it’s likely to outperform.

• Short Costco – A high-valuation retail name that could underperform in a bull market as capital rotates into growth.

• Short Best Buy – Vulnerable due to heavy exposure to Chinese imports and thinning margins.

• Long Credo – A tech stock tied to AI infrastructure. Its future growth isn’t limited by macro noise.

Each of these trades covers a different macro angle — and when structured as 50% positions, you gain the flexibility to double down later once market clarity appears.

📊 Portfolio Example: Risk and Reward

Let’s say you’re trading with a $50K book and allocate $10K across four trades (25% of deployed capital). Each trade is a half-size position.

Two basic scenarios:

• If the market goes risk-on → Dollar Tree and Credo rally

• If it goes risk-off → Costco and Best Buy shorts pay off

Even if only two of the four work out, you could still see a 30–60% return on deployed capital — while keeping 80% of your book in reserve.

That’s textbook risk-adjusted structuring — exactly what Anton Kreil teaches at ITPM.

🛑 Don’t Get Stuck in the "Great Research" Trap

As Anton Kreil often says:

“You don’t get paid for having great research. You get paid for structuring great trades.”

Boom. Let that sink in.

You could have the most convincing thesis in the world — but without proper sizing, risk control, and timing, you’re gambling, not trading.

Risk-adjusted trading is about execution, not ego.

🧩 What Makes a Trade Truly “Risk-Adjusted”?

Here’s the checklist used by top-performing ITPM mentees:

✅ Balanced long and short exposure

✅ Macro-neutral or low-beta pair trades

✅ Controlled sizing (e.g. 50% positions)

✅ Optionality to scale up when right

✅ No dependency on predicting news or timing

These principles are the backbone of the structured portfolio management approach taught by Kreil and ITPM. It’s not about being right all the time — it’s about never being wrecked when you’re wrong.

💥 Avoiding the Dangerous Consensus

One of the most dangerous places in the market? Consensus.

It can be dangerous when everyone thinks the same thing — especially in today’s retail-heavy environment.

“Consensus is where you get killed.” — Anton Kreil

When the entire market leans one way, even a small surprise can trigger a violent move. Risk-adjusted traders don’t just avoid the herd — they’re positioned to profit when the herd is wrong.

📆 Binary Events & The “Travel and Arrive” Effect

Binary events — like tariffs, CPI releases, or Fed rate decisions — can move markets in either direction fast.

But here's the trap: the market often prices in an expected result. When that result happens, the market may not move or even reverse — the classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact”.

That’s why ITPM teaches traders to:

• Avoid taking large, one-directional positions into event risk

• Use smaller, agnostic setups around the event

• Add size after confirmation, not before

The goal? Stay nimble. Stay profitable. And most importantly — stay in the game.

🤯 Agnostic Trading = Confident Trading

A powerful phrase held by ITPM students is:

“I don’t care what happens — I’m ready for both outcomes.”

That’s the heart of being risk-adjusted. You’re not guessing. You’re prepared.

You don’t trade based on hope. You trade based on structure. And that structure gives you clarity, confidence, and the freedom to act without fear.

This is core to the ITPM philosophy, and it’s what allows traders to scale with confidence while protecting their capital.

🙋‍♂️ Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What does ITPM teach about risk-adjusted returns? ITPM (Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management), led by Anton Kreil, teaches traders how to structure portfolios using asymmetric risk-reward strategies that are macro-agnostic and discipline-driven.

2. Who is Anton Kreil? Anton Kreil is a former Goldman Sachs trader and the founder of ITPM. He’s globally known for teaching retail traders how to think and act like professionals.

3. Is a 50% position always better? Not always, but it gives you the flexibility to scale. It’s especially useful during uncertainty or binary events where full size may expose you to unnecessary risk.

4. What are binary events in trading? These are events with two sharply different possible outcomes — like tariff announcements, interest rate decisions, or earnings — which can cause significant price movement either way.

🏁 Final Thought: Stack the Odds in Your Favor

Risk-adjusted trading isn’t about being right more often — it’s about being smart with your risk every time.

What separates consistently profitable traders — like those mentored by Anton Kreil at ITPM — isn’t perfect predictions. It’s structure. It’s positioning. It’s understanding what to do when things don’t go your way.

Before your next trade, ask:

• Am I prepared for both outcomes?

• Do I have the option to double winners?

• Can I protect my downside without flinching?

If the answer is no — it’s time to rethink your setup.

💡 Want to learn how the pros actually trade?

Check out the PTM 2.0 Program at ITPM — and make risk-adjusted thinking your new normal.

Disclaimer:

The information contained in this article is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. The content reflects the personal opinions of the author based on publicly available information at the time of writing and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decisions. Earnings reviews may contain forward-looking statements that are inherently uncertain and subject to change.

Readers are strongly encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence, and to consult with a qualified financial advisor or licensed professional before making any investment or trading decisions. The author and publisher make no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided and accept no liability for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on the information herein.