Market Breadth in Trading: An ITPM & Anton Kreil Strategy Using Top-Down, Bottom-Up Analysis

This weekly 52-week highs/lows market breadth chart, inspired by Ben Berggreen and used in line with ITPM’s top-down/bottom-up approach, reveals the true underlying strength or weakness behind SPY’s headline moves.

Introduction

Ever noticed how headlines scream “Market Hits Record Highs!” but your portfolio doesn’t seem to budge? Or worse—it drops?

That’s the illusion indexes often create. A few mega-cap names can pull the entire index higher while most stocks struggle.

Anton Kreil’s ITPM trading philosophy doesn’t fall for these headlines. Instead, it emphasizes top-down and bottom-up macroeconomic analysis paired with market breadth indicators to get a clear, realistic picture of what’s really going on.

In this guide, we’ll break down how market breadth analysis fits into an ITPM-style approach. We’ll see how you can use it to evaluate probabilistic outcomes, manage risk, and position your portfolio with more confidence.

What Is Market Breadth?

Market breadth is essentially a check on how many stocks are participating in a market move.

It’s not enough to see the S&P 500 up 1% and think all is well. You want to know:

• Are hundreds of stocks moving higher together?

• Or is it just Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia pulling the weight?

If the move is broad-based, it’s more likely to be sustainable. If it’s narrow, it can be fragile and prone to sharp reversals.

Think of market breadth as taking the market’s pulse. It helps traders avoid getting tricked by big, flashy index moves that hide underlying weakness.

The ITPM & Anton Kreil Framework: Top-Down and Bottom-Up

Anton Kreil and ITPM traders don’t just jump in because “the chart looks good.” They start with a top-down macroeconomic analysis, then drill into bottom-up sector and company specifics.

Top-Down Analysis

• Global growth trends

• Interest rates and monetary policy

• Inflation data

• Geopolitical risks

• Central bank guidance

The goal? Understand the overall economic environment before making any decisions.

Bottom-Up Analysis

• Sector fundamentals

• Company financials and catalysts

• Valuation relative to peers

• Earnings trends

This layered approach helps traders form a thesis about where to position capital.

But here’s the twist: Market breadth can assist as well as a final filter.

Even if your macro view is bullish, if market breadth doesn’t confirm it, you may need to reassess.

Market Breadth as Confirmation

ITPM trading is built around probabilistic thinking. You’re never predicting the future with certainty. You’re weighing scenarios.

Market breadth helps you do just that.

• Strong breadth increases the probability your bullish thesis plays out.

• Weak breadth suggests your thesis may be flawed or early.

Imagine the index is rising. That looks bullish, right?

But breadth data shows most stocks are flat or falling. That’s a red flag. It tells you the move is fragile and likely to fail if those leaders lose steam.

In short, market breadth is your “second opinion” for analysing your risk.

Avoiding the Index Illusion

Many retail traders see indexes going up and assume the market is healthy.

ITPM-trained traders don’t fall for that. They look at what’s really driving the move.

For example:

• Is the rally driven by 5 mega-cap tech stocks?

• Or is it happening across hundreds of companies in different sectors?

Breadth analysis exposes these differences.

Weak breadth means the move is vulnerable. Strong breadth could suggest a durable, healthy market.

Key Breadth Indicators I Use to Assess Market Dynamics

When it comes to evaluating market breadth—something Anton Kreil and the ITPM approach treat as essential—I don’t just rely on generic charts or one-dimensional signals. Instead, I use a few focused tools to get a clear, layered view of what’s really happening beneath the surface of the indexes.

Here’s exactly how I approach it:

✅ 52-Week Highs and Lows (Weekly US Stocks)

This is my bread-and-butter starting point. I focus specifically on the weekly data for US stocks hitting 52-week highs and lows.

• Why? Because it shows me who’s really breaking out or breaking down over a meaningful timeframe—not just day-to-day noise.

• Rising 52-week highs across a broad swath of stocks tells me there’s strong participation supporting the market.

• But if new lows start dominating, even when the index is flat or inching up, that’s a clear early warning sign.

This metric acts as a sanity check on whether the bullish or bearish narrative has actual depth behind it.

✅ Sector and Theme Analysis via Major ETF Lists

Another critical part of my breadth analysis is looking at sector themes using major ETF lists.

• Why? Because capital always rotates—from growth to value, from defensive to cyclical.

• I want to see which sectors and themes are outperforming on a relative basis.

• Strong themes (think AI, semiconductors,) lifting multiple stocks suggest robust risk-on behavior.

By monitoring relative strength among ETFs, I can spot where the institutional money is flowing and anticipate which groups are most likely to lead the next leg of the move.

Instead of just trading single stocks blindly, this helps me align with broader sector momentum—something Anton Kreil always stresses in ITPM training.

✅ Commitment of Traders (COT) Data

Here’s one that often gets overlooked in discussions about market breadth, but it's invaluable to me: the Commitment of Traders (COT) report.

• What is it? Weekly data showing how major market participants (commercials, large speculators, small traders) are positioned in futures markets.

• Why do I use it? It helps me gauge the sentiment and positioning of key players who often drive macro trends.

If commercials are heavily long or short, it can signal extreme positioning that may lead to a reversal or a powerful trend continuation.

By layering COT data on top of my sector and breadth analysis, I get a more probabilistic view of where the next big market moves are likely to come from.

How These Indicators Work Together

Instead of relying on a single signal, I combine these three tools to build a holistic view:

✅ 52-week highs/lows show the health of the rally or selloff at a stock level.

✅ Sector/ETF analysis reveals where the strongest themes are gaining traction.

✅ COT data uncovers the positioning of big players who can shift markets.

This multi-angle approach fits perfectly with the ITPM and Anton Kreil philosophy of stacking evidence and using probabilistic thinking—not prediction.

Because let’s face it, no single indicator will tell you exactly what’s next. But taken together, they help you manage risk, time your entries better, and avoid the classic trap of getting sucked into headline-driven, narrow-market rallies.

Why This Matters for Risk Management

Anton Kreil emphasizes risk management above all.

Market breadth helps manage risk by exposing hidden dangers:

• Prevents overconfidence in narrow rallies.

• Flags when rotation is happening under the surface.

• Warns of potential reversals before they show up in price.

Paying attention to breadth can mean the difference between riding a trend confidently or getting blindsided by a sudden drop.

Takeaways

Market breadth is more than an academic concept—it’s a critical tool for traders who want to see through the noise.

Using an ITPM approach inspired by Anton Kreil, you can:

✅ Start with a top-down macro view.

✅ Drill into bottom-up fundamentals

✅ Confirm your thesis with market breadth data.

This layered process gives you an edge: you’re not just following price, but understanding the forces behind it.

So next time the market surges on headlines, ask yourself:

Is the rally real? Or is breadth telling you another story?

FAQs

❓ Why does Anton Kreil emphasize macro first?

Because macro forces drive liquidity, growth, and risk appetite across markets. Without understanding the big picture, stock picking becomes blind guesswork.

❓ How often should traders check market breadth?

Daily or weekly. It’s not about reacting to every tick but spotting sustained trends or divergences.

❓ Is market breadth predictive?

It’s not about prediction in the crystal-ball sense. It’s about assessing probabilities and aligning your trades with high-probability outcomes.

Disclaimer:

The information contained in this article is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. The content reflects the personal opinions of the author based on publicly available information at the time of writing and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decisions. Earnings reviews may contain forward-looking statements that are inherently uncertain and subject to change.

Readers are strongly encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence, and to consult with a qualified financial advisor or licensed professional before making any investment or trading decisions. The author and publisher make no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided and accept no liability for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on the information herein.